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2012 Vulnerability Analysis

Vulnerability risk analysis is a tool that helps to identify census tracts within the City of Portland that have higher-than-citywide average populations with characteristics that make resisting displacement more difficult: they are renters rather than homeowners, belong to communities of color, lack college degrees, and have lower incomes. As part of efforts to evaluate potential gentrification impacts, the Bureau of Planning and Sustainability (BPS) contracted with Dr. Lisa Bates to prepare a paper on how to assess vulnerability of different neighborhoods to increased gentrification pressure. Although gentrification can also have impacts on businesses or commercial space, this research focused on the risks for residential displacement. The study titled, Gentrification and Displacement Study: implementing an equitable inclusive development strategy in the context of gentrification is available at online.

Vulnerability analysis is one of the three components of an assessment tool that operationalize a conceptual definition of gentrification and displacement risk. Demographic changes and housing market appreciation are the two other components. The vulnerability score, demographic change and the status of housing market in various combinations determine specific stages of gentrification and displacement risk.


Vulnerability Methodology

Factors and analysis used to create the six vulnerability maps

2012 Vulnerability Risk Factors

The combined vulnerability score that can range between 0 to 4 for all the census tracts in Portland

Vulnerability 2012

Depicts all "vulnerable census tracts" in Portland with risk scores ranging from 3 to 4

2012 Vulnerability Risk Factor A: Renters

Depicts all census tracts in Portland with share of households that are renters greater than the citywide rate of 45.6%

2012 Vulnerability Risk Factor B: Communities of Color

Depicts all census tracts in Portland with share of Communities of Color greater than the citywide rate of 27.4%

2012 Vulnerability Risk Factor C: Educational Attainment

Depicts all census tracts in Portland with share of population 25 and over without bachelor’s degree greater than the citywide rate of 56.3%

2012 Vulnerability Risk Factor D: Households with Income at or Below 80% HUD-adjusted MFI

Depicts all census tracts in Portland with share of households at or below 80% of HUD-adjusted MFI greater than the citywide rate of 43.7%