March 13, 2013
Attendees: Linda Nettekoven; Ivy Dunlap; Sara Schooley; Courtney Duke; Bob Glascock; Nicholas Starin; Tom Armstrong; Michele Crim; Spencer Williams; Michelle Kunec-North; Michael Montgomery; Will Fuller; Beth Kaye; Diane Hale; Chris Scarzello; Helen Ying;Jennifer Moore; Al Burns; Desiree Williams-Rajee; Judith Mowry; Notetaker: Olivia Limon
Tom Armstrong presented on Growth Scenarios
Based on Metro projections we are planning for:
- 130,000 new households 150,000 new jobs in forecast for next 20 years. We have the capacity for 250,000 new households
- “Legacy Landscape” Most of what is already present will be here in the future. Growth patterns are strongly linked to what is already present. How do we improve performance of what already exists?
Planning looked at several different scenarios for growth:
- 1st scenario. Default scenario. Projected growth of last 15 years into next 35 years.
- 2nd scenario emphasized growth in centers
- 3rd scenario emphasized growth near corridors
- 4th scenario emphasized central city focus – convenient access to city center
The following goals have been established (incomplete list)
- 20% growth in single family housing, 80% in multi-family housing
- We want 80% of households to be in “complete” neighborhoods
Additional thoughts on scenarios:
- Development capacity? How do we best utilize it? Based on current zoning.
- Moveable zones include neighborhood commercial jobs because they follow new residential growth.
- Performance measures: measures households on “complete” neighborhoods. Measures growth, not investment. “what if” scenarios will help improve performance. What if: sidewalks, bus routes, etc.
- Consistent lack of services inEast Portland. Long transit trips to get to “family wage employment” jobs in industrial areas and central city. Access should be in 60 min trip.
- Different areas may benefit from different scenarios.
- Planning attention needs to be paid to vulnerable communities that are susceptible to displacement from gentrification
- Home values inEast Portlandhave vulnerable communities but real estate appreciation doesn’t put them in immediate danger of displacement from gentrification. How do we invest in the communities without gentrifying the area?
- Are incomes forecasted for certain populations? Not necessarily but jobs are broken down into sectors and sector growth.
Additional Points for Further Consideration
- What else do we need in order to understand impacts?
- What else can we measure besides land use and growth?
- Measuring health issues that are projected (air quality, etc. and who is expected to be impacted by that?)
- What are the health equity outcomes for people?
- Who lives where? We need to understand population to understand certain effects
- Who lives in the areas that are not complete neighborhoods?
- What can the city do in terms of policy and procedure to ensure that we don’t burden already burdened population?
- Scale and location: How big is the problem and where does it exist?
- Where do people get displaced to? From high services to low? What opportunities can we bring to people who are displaced to other areas? If we look at displacement trends we could figure that out.
- What are the expected costs of housing?
- How are priorities made to address gaps in complete neighborhoods?
- How do we define well-being? What is “livability” to the growing communities and changing demographic inPortland? What does that look like in infrastructure?
- What is needed to support the development of communities?
- What makes a “center”? What makes it equitable?
- What are the travel patterns of people with disabilities?
- What are the moving risks of gentrification?
- What do we do that contributes to the problem? What are the root issues that need to be addressed with the comprehensive plan?
- Going forward we need to look for existing data that can shed light on these questions. Information needs to be found and generated.
- These questions can be used on a smaller scale to help understand how this looks on the “ground level”
- Third part of the comp plan is the project list which is easy to apply equity lens to.