Existing analyses (the Oregon Resilience Plan and the DOGAMI analysis) lack quantitative specificity regarding the consequences of the Cascadia Subduction Zone earthquake on regional economies. Therefore, a second part of this Phase 2 project expansion is proposed to use the DOGAMI results to conduct additional analysis on economic consequences of the CSZ for the regional economy.
ECONorthwest developed an earthquake economic impact model that builds on the output of the DOGAMI analysis described above. The DOGAMI results will describe the extent of building damage, by location. Matching the DOGAMI output on the extent of building damage by location with data on employment and earnings (also by location) will provide insights into the direct economic impacts of the CSZ on businesses. Using IMPLAN software (standard commonly-used economic multiplier model) and multiplier data specific to the Portland urban area, ECONorthwest proposes to calculate how the direct economic impacts of the CSZ on employment and earnings will ripple through the regional economy. The analysis will also take into account offsetting impacts of businesses that may be able to relocate from damaged or destroyed buildings to locations elsewhere in the regional economy.